desi3933
08-22 01:47 PM
Here's an anecdote -
This was back in the late 80s, when I was growing up - in Bangalore.
India had just lost the Finals of a well fought [field] hockey match to Pakistan. We were all very disappointed by the loss, but it saddened me further to see a victory procession with waving Pakistani flags in the Muslim parts of the City.
Ofcourse, India is a secular country and more so the United States.. and you can cheer whoever you please..
But, If you chose to become a US Citizen, and US were in a battle with your country of Origin (let's narrow it down to Sports, to keep it less complicated), which country would you side? If I chose to side with my country of origin, it would make me a hypocrite, wouldn't it ?
>> which country would you side?
Without a doubt, USA as I am a US citizen and USA is my country.
This was back in the late 80s, when I was growing up - in Bangalore.
India had just lost the Finals of a well fought [field] hockey match to Pakistan. We were all very disappointed by the loss, but it saddened me further to see a victory procession with waving Pakistani flags in the Muslim parts of the City.
Ofcourse, India is a secular country and more so the United States.. and you can cheer whoever you please..
But, If you chose to become a US Citizen, and US were in a battle with your country of Origin (let's narrow it down to Sports, to keep it less complicated), which country would you side? If I chose to side with my country of origin, it would make me a hypocrite, wouldn't it ?
>> which country would you side?
Without a doubt, USA as I am a US citizen and USA is my country.
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petepatel
09-17 11:23 AM
It is on now
rajuseattle
04-18 08:07 PM
Lets keep this thread to celebrate OP's Green Card and some inspiration for Hopeless EB-3 guys.
Krish: I agreed VISA recpature and not including dependents will help us a lot, but looking at the current political divisiveness and people focusing more on 2012 election cycle and the campaigning, noone going to touch this HOT POtato of legislative reforms for Legal immigration. Now considering wait until the formation of 113th US congress it is about 20 months time, so do u expect People who are qualified and getting an opportunity to get out of EB-3 mess should wait that long? People already waiting since 2002/2003 PDs and no sign of any legal relief from USCIS/DoS for this hopeless EB-3 india people. Once agian legit porting is the way out to come out of EB-3 india mess, their is no other solution for us. When you compare all retroigress classes EB-3 india is the worst, we are still in April 2002 as compared to other EB-3 categories which are now in July 2005 range. (china is exception to this they are way better than us to somewhere 2004 range). Please dont bring in this issue in this celebration thread, let people cheer something, we already had so many useless threads and verbal arguments on this subject.
Krish: I agreed VISA recpature and not including dependents will help us a lot, but looking at the current political divisiveness and people focusing more on 2012 election cycle and the campaigning, noone going to touch this HOT POtato of legislative reforms for Legal immigration. Now considering wait until the formation of 113th US congress it is about 20 months time, so do u expect People who are qualified and getting an opportunity to get out of EB-3 mess should wait that long? People already waiting since 2002/2003 PDs and no sign of any legal relief from USCIS/DoS for this hopeless EB-3 india people. Once agian legit porting is the way out to come out of EB-3 india mess, their is no other solution for us. When you compare all retroigress classes EB-3 india is the worst, we are still in April 2002 as compared to other EB-3 categories which are now in July 2005 range. (china is exception to this they are way better than us to somewhere 2004 range). Please dont bring in this issue in this celebration thread, let people cheer something, we already had so many useless threads and verbal arguments on this subject.
2011 #6 1975 Gibson Les Paul Deluxe
swamy
11-20 07:44 PM
I am still debating whether to call in or to write - but I will definitely do one of the two. I just read the other thread linked to by 'internet' above & thought I would say a couple of things to the losers at alipac who worship racists like tancredo and lou: Don't distort this thread's message - we not are trying to gag Mr.Lou however much I puke everytime I see him spewing venow on 'aliens' -and I sometimes even admire his constant state of outrage and complete lack of shame. He and his worshippers at alipac are a reminder that bigotry may have been outlawed offcially in the 60's but definitely wasn't completely eliminated for posterity -a lesson to all those who forget history and think we have always been 'civilized'; we are the nation we are today because of the tireless work of so many great leaders supported by so many forward thinking Americans of all colors -so lets be clear - we WANT LOU to spew his venom and unvarnished bigotry in Detroit - we WANT alipac to worship such hatemongers so when youngsters wonder how people could have been done horrible acts in the past we can point to you guys and say 'here you go - now know that every generation has its bigots and its the duty of decent folks to oppose them - its a constant never ending fight!'
more...
adreg
04-07 11:50 AM
I just put in my $100.
This NPR-like drive works (especially when Ira Glass at NPR pushes you along) :)
More seriously though, good work IV core folk and volunteers. This is the first forum that I find thoughtful, smart and tactful and tuned into the legilsative framework on Capitol Hill. Good work.
AD
This NPR-like drive works (especially when Ira Glass at NPR pushes you along) :)
More seriously though, good work IV core folk and volunteers. This is the first forum that I find thoughtful, smart and tactful and tuned into the legilsative framework on Capitol Hill. Good work.
AD
shankar_thanu
07-17 12:21 PM
Yeah, we have to focus on long term relief. Getting AP and EAD is not a long term solution. I was hoping 'capturing unused numbers' or something better would happen with this July fiasco fix, does not seem to be happening now.
Hopefully this DREAM act will trigger more amendments like 'no limits on STEM EB visas' to get into pending bills...
Hopefully this DREAM act will trigger more amendments like 'no limits on STEM EB visas' to get into pending bills...
more...
greencard_fever
05-25 11:09 AM
How to track the progress of this Bill? can some one post the link to track.
here is the link http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-6938
looks like this bill will not go no where ...there is only 3 cosponsors..:mad::mad:
here is the link http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-6938
looks like this bill will not go no where ...there is only 3 cosponsors..:mad::mad:
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Canadian_Dream
09-13 02:08 PM
Anyone thinking that there will be a bill passed in near future that will overhaul skilled immigration process needs a reality check. Now I am not discouraging anyone from trying, I am also suffering through this mess and in no better position. The reasoning behind my assumption is following:
1. Lawmakers serve America and Americans. In theory anything that passes must look like it is serving their interest. Most laws/actions MUST look like it is helping Americans directly or indirectly, more so in an election year. That's why with less than 60 days for election it is not wise for them to spend time in enacting and debating laws that helps immigrants. It simply makes no sense.
2. You can argue that helping skilled immigrants will help America greatly and there is an urgency to enact such laws. Unfortunately no matter what media says, there is no such urgency seen by either law makers or their advisers. The reason, being there is no mass exodus for skilled immigrants, I know a few who have gone back but most of us are still here waiting for visa bulletin evey month hoping that some miracle will happen some day. Even if there is a mass exodus, there are enough people in India/China/Eastern Europe who will be more than happy to be here and do whatever we are doing. Simple law of numbers.
3. It can also be argued that America is not producing enough talents in Science and technology and hence we should throw a red carpet to anyone who can buy his way through the MS program from an American university. Unfortunately for us, a lot of us are doing mundane jobs and do not make a big impact in the economy the way techies used to be in late 90's. The best and the brightest are well taken care of (read: EB1/NIW) even today, for the rest us there isn't a desire nor a need to expidite the process in any manner. It will only help us, and we don't matter.
4. There isn't much shortage of skilled professionals, definitely not of the proportion that 65,000 visas are gone in 2 months. The only shortage I see is of numbers of "Visas". Although it is hard to find good people in technology but that problem cannot be solved by making that number higher. I am not sure what's the reason.
So what can we do ?
In short we are just a John Doe seeking better life which unfortunately isn't there in our home country. We should enhance our Skills (NOT skill bill) and help ourself to do well in anywhere. One thing is use 3 years extensions to chnage jobs and do well.
We can also align ourselves with H1B lobby/Healthcare lobby and request to file I-485 without visa numbers. That will at least stop some of the indentured servitude and our spouses can work.
1. Lawmakers serve America and Americans. In theory anything that passes must look like it is serving their interest. Most laws/actions MUST look like it is helping Americans directly or indirectly, more so in an election year. That's why with less than 60 days for election it is not wise for them to spend time in enacting and debating laws that helps immigrants. It simply makes no sense.
2. You can argue that helping skilled immigrants will help America greatly and there is an urgency to enact such laws. Unfortunately no matter what media says, there is no such urgency seen by either law makers or their advisers. The reason, being there is no mass exodus for skilled immigrants, I know a few who have gone back but most of us are still here waiting for visa bulletin evey month hoping that some miracle will happen some day. Even if there is a mass exodus, there are enough people in India/China/Eastern Europe who will be more than happy to be here and do whatever we are doing. Simple law of numbers.
3. It can also be argued that America is not producing enough talents in Science and technology and hence we should throw a red carpet to anyone who can buy his way through the MS program from an American university. Unfortunately for us, a lot of us are doing mundane jobs and do not make a big impact in the economy the way techies used to be in late 90's. The best and the brightest are well taken care of (read: EB1/NIW) even today, for the rest us there isn't a desire nor a need to expidite the process in any manner. It will only help us, and we don't matter.
4. There isn't much shortage of skilled professionals, definitely not of the proportion that 65,000 visas are gone in 2 months. The only shortage I see is of numbers of "Visas". Although it is hard to find good people in technology but that problem cannot be solved by making that number higher. I am not sure what's the reason.
So what can we do ?
In short we are just a John Doe seeking better life which unfortunately isn't there in our home country. We should enhance our Skills (NOT skill bill) and help ourself to do well in anywhere. One thing is use 3 years extensions to chnage jobs and do well.
We can also align ourselves with H1B lobby/Healthcare lobby and request to file I-485 without visa numbers. That will at least stop some of the indentured servitude and our spouses can work.
more...
Immi_Chant
01-30 07:24 PM
Done. Its question # 78 as on 4.37 PM PST.
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anandrajesh
07-16 12:18 PM
Singed.
It should have 50K signatures.
Signed.
This gentleman need to know the facts prior spreading all false and misinformed campaigns.
It should have 50K signatures.
Signed.
This gentleman need to know the facts prior spreading all false and misinformed campaigns.
more...
pappu
10-16 12:46 PM
Are there only 3 people suffering from namechecks?
This issue can be pushed if we have strong support for it.
This issue can be pushed if we have strong support for it.
hot Heritage Cherry Sunburst
coopheal
04-21 02:06 PM
Sent another one and its about that Moron snathan
:p
You are being warned. mend your ways otherwise be prepared for ban.
:p
You are being warned. mend your ways otherwise be prepared for ban.
more...
house Gibson Les Paul Studio
BrightSpark
06-19 05:45 PM
cool one brightspark.
Cheers bud :D
Gona make me an avatar and sig next :p
Cheers bud :D
Gona make me an avatar and sig next :p
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Raju
04-07 03:31 PM
I made four of my friends to contribute and I ask you guys to urge your friends. I guess, you may not be able to contribute $500, but you certainly can try to make 4 of your friends to contribute
more...
pictures Gibson+les+paul+sunburst+
learning01
02-01 12:53 PM
where there are no /nil/nada/zip GCs, it is a fault in the system. Because no disclosures are needed. They are the attorneys and future law makers. They are done with hi-tech workers, nurses. Now it is time to look for new 'bhakra'/'meka'/'aadu'
From ILW.com (http://www.ilw.com/seminars/december2006.shtm)
Physician Visas: What You Need To Know Now
Speakers: Gregory Siskind, Suzanne B. Seltzer, Joseph P. Curran, Jacqueline DeAndrus Bucar, Kristi L. Crawford, Eleanor M. Fitzpatrick, Benjamin T. Kurten, Chris Musillo, Ronald A. Nair, Jan Pederson, Donna Rae Richardson and Barry Walker.
Seminar Outline
Speaker bios
REGISTER NOW!
Each call features an hour of analysis, strategy and practice tips by Gregory Siskind, Suzanne B. Seltzer, Joseph P. Curran, Jacqueline DeAndrus Bucar, Kristi L. Crawford, Eleanor M. Fitzpatrick, Benjamin T. Kurten, Chris Musillo, Ronald A. Nair, Jan Pederson, Donna Rae Richardson and Barry Walker, followed by 30 minutes of questions and answers from participants.
SEMINAR OUTLINE
FIRST Phone Session on Dec 21, 2006: How to Immigrate as a Physician
� Credentialing and licensing: What does it take to be a US doctor? (ECFMG, residuary, USMLE)
� Entering to get credentialed
o B Visas
o F Visa - study centers
� Training
o From soup to nuts � how a doctor gets in to a residency program and gets to the US
o J-2 spouses
o H Visa - What's really required to be an H-1B resident? Which programs are subject to the H-1B cap?
o O Visa Can it work for a "training" position?
� J-1 Waivers
o HPSAs, MUAs, MHPSAs - understanding shortage areas
o Which federal government agencies sponsor waivers?
SECOND Phone Session on Jan 18, 2007: Hs, Os and Green Cards for Physicians
� J-1 Waivers
o I'm a specialist, where can I go?
o State 30 programs
o Waiver procedures - nuts and bolts
o Interaction of J waiver and NIW for underserved areas
o The impact of bi-specialization on waiver processing
� H-1Bs
o Basic requirements
o Cap issues for MDs
o Prevailing wage determinations
o Self-employment
� Os and other alternative non-immigrant categories
� Labor Certifications
� National Interest Waivers
� Other green card categories
THIRD Phone Session on Feb 1, 2007: Nurses and Legislative Update
� Nurses
o Non-immigrant options
o Green card options - impact of retrogression
o Credentialing update
o Consular processing issues
Legislative Update - The impact of comprehensive immigration reform on health care professions
REGISTER NOW
I agree with the initial post . But the market condition is such that it is very difficult to get qualified people for ERP/CRM applications so desi consultants get placed through desi companies .
From ILW.com (http://www.ilw.com/seminars/december2006.shtm)
Physician Visas: What You Need To Know Now
Speakers: Gregory Siskind, Suzanne B. Seltzer, Joseph P. Curran, Jacqueline DeAndrus Bucar, Kristi L. Crawford, Eleanor M. Fitzpatrick, Benjamin T. Kurten, Chris Musillo, Ronald A. Nair, Jan Pederson, Donna Rae Richardson and Barry Walker.
Seminar Outline
Speaker bios
REGISTER NOW!
Each call features an hour of analysis, strategy and practice tips by Gregory Siskind, Suzanne B. Seltzer, Joseph P. Curran, Jacqueline DeAndrus Bucar, Kristi L. Crawford, Eleanor M. Fitzpatrick, Benjamin T. Kurten, Chris Musillo, Ronald A. Nair, Jan Pederson, Donna Rae Richardson and Barry Walker, followed by 30 minutes of questions and answers from participants.
SEMINAR OUTLINE
FIRST Phone Session on Dec 21, 2006: How to Immigrate as a Physician
� Credentialing and licensing: What does it take to be a US doctor? (ECFMG, residuary, USMLE)
� Entering to get credentialed
o B Visas
o F Visa - study centers
� Training
o From soup to nuts � how a doctor gets in to a residency program and gets to the US
o J-2 spouses
o H Visa - What's really required to be an H-1B resident? Which programs are subject to the H-1B cap?
o O Visa Can it work for a "training" position?
� J-1 Waivers
o HPSAs, MUAs, MHPSAs - understanding shortage areas
o Which federal government agencies sponsor waivers?
SECOND Phone Session on Jan 18, 2007: Hs, Os and Green Cards for Physicians
� J-1 Waivers
o I'm a specialist, where can I go?
o State 30 programs
o Waiver procedures - nuts and bolts
o Interaction of J waiver and NIW for underserved areas
o The impact of bi-specialization on waiver processing
� H-1Bs
o Basic requirements
o Cap issues for MDs
o Prevailing wage determinations
o Self-employment
� Os and other alternative non-immigrant categories
� Labor Certifications
� National Interest Waivers
� Other green card categories
THIRD Phone Session on Feb 1, 2007: Nurses and Legislative Update
� Nurses
o Non-immigrant options
o Green card options - impact of retrogression
o Credentialing update
o Consular processing issues
Legislative Update - The impact of comprehensive immigration reform on health care professions
REGISTER NOW
I agree with the initial post . But the market condition is such that it is very difficult to get qualified people for ERP/CRM applications so desi consultants get placed through desi companies .
dresses Gibson+les+paul+studio+
Humhongekamyab
07-03 10:25 AM
In this day and age the news travel fast and if we expose wrong people it will help everybody. My friend told me that his brother in law wanted to come to US to earn his flying licence. He wanted to go to this one school in California. My friend left three messages with the school last year buy luckily no one returned his call so his brother in law joined a school in GA. This week my friend sent me this about the school in CA http://feeds.feedburner.com/2ndcity?format=xml
It is still a breaking news and it would take few days/weeks to figure out what actually happened but due to the wonders of internet everybody who is interested in becoming a pilot knows about this and it all happened within days.
It is still a breaking news and it would take few days/weeks to figure out what actually happened but due to the wonders of internet everybody who is interested in becoming a pilot knows about this and it all happened within days.
more...
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karthiknv143
02-07 06:11 PM
:confused: 02/07/2007: Details of DOL Backlog Cases Processing Statistics
(http://www.immigration-law.com)
Yesterday, we reported that the Backlog Elimination Centers had completed 67% of cases as of 01/27/2007. According to the "unconfirmed sources", the details appear to be as follows:
Total Number of Cases: over 300,000
Processing status by the Two Backlog Elimination Centers:
Total 100% Dallas (152,000+) Phily (169,000+)
Pending 33% 33% 36%
Completed 67% (1) Certified 33% 33%
" (2) Closed 21% 20%
" (3) Withdrawn 11% 08%
" (4) Denied 01% 02%
The good news is that there were very small number of denials. Bad news is a large number cases did not make it through becuase they were either withdrawn or closed. There are a very small fraction of cases which are not reflected in the table.
(http://www.immigration-law.com)
Yesterday, we reported that the Backlog Elimination Centers had completed 67% of cases as of 01/27/2007. According to the "unconfirmed sources", the details appear to be as follows:
Total Number of Cases: over 300,000
Processing status by the Two Backlog Elimination Centers:
Total 100% Dallas (152,000+) Phily (169,000+)
Pending 33% 33% 36%
Completed 67% (1) Certified 33% 33%
" (2) Closed 21% 20%
" (3) Withdrawn 11% 08%
" (4) Denied 01% 02%
The good news is that there were very small number of denials. Bad news is a large number cases did not make it through becuase they were either withdrawn or closed. There are a very small fraction of cases which are not reflected in the table.
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snathan
04-26 03:13 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/apr2009/db20090423_219068.htm
But advocates for skilled immigrants�many of whom remain stuck for years on H-1Bs waiting in the long queue for permanent residency�worry that the bill is a political maneuver rather than an earnest effort at reform. Aman Kapoor, president of the skilled immigrant advocate group Immigration Voice, says that a more effective bill would ensure H-1B visa workers are on a level playing field with U.S. workers. "Skilled immigrants on H-1Bs don't get the same rights and protections as everyone else," says Kapoor. "So wouldn't the solution be to empower and enable the skilled immigrants on H-1Bs such that�skilled immigrants on H-1s have adequate protections so that no one can take advantage of [them]? But no one wants to talk about protections for skilled immigrants."
I posted my commnets on thiss....did you.
But advocates for skilled immigrants�many of whom remain stuck for years on H-1Bs waiting in the long queue for permanent residency�worry that the bill is a political maneuver rather than an earnest effort at reform. Aman Kapoor, president of the skilled immigrant advocate group Immigration Voice, says that a more effective bill would ensure H-1B visa workers are on a level playing field with U.S. workers. "Skilled immigrants on H-1Bs don't get the same rights and protections as everyone else," says Kapoor. "So wouldn't the solution be to empower and enable the skilled immigrants on H-1Bs such that�skilled immigrants on H-1s have adequate protections so that no one can take advantage of [them]? But no one wants to talk about protections for skilled immigrants."
I posted my commnets on thiss....did you.
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thakurrajiv
07-30 12:02 PM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
madhu345
05-24 09:25 PM
Guys,
Can we lobby to add an ammendum to pay huge penalities($50K) when all the current GC holders apply for Citizenships.
-Mad
Can we lobby to add an ammendum to pay huge penalities($50K) when all the current GC holders apply for Citizenships.
-Mad
swamy
11-27 03:45 PM
There's a book put out by three 'scholars' from the Manhattan Institute with an innocuous title and everything else inside it anything but! The debate is being pushed to dangerous new grounds - while many openly say that all of America's immigration problems began in the 60's, code for colored people allowed in legally, one author said it was 'wrong' to link opening up immigration to all races (by abolishing hemispherical quota) and the civil-rights movement. Ofcourse he didn't say why. They always have to make a big point about Kennedy predicting that immigration wouldn't surge with the 60's act but why the 'surge' is a bad thing in itself is never fully explained - making use of hazy data and cause and effects that are highly diffuse to be really a true 'cause/effect' is the scholarly methodology used.And ofcourse he also argued that previous waves of immigration are different from the current ones but when the argument is brought up that immigrants eventually assimilate suddenly history is no guidance - in other words don’t look at history now! Given the complete lack of spine or commonsense of IV browsers, one can only hope this is just an ugly cycle that plays itself out and decent people recover their sensibility